Last Update - October 15, 2020 350 Pacific On Cyclone Yasa: Climate Change Is Here And Now; New Zealanders Urged To Donate Responsibly Following Cyclone Yasa; 350 Pacific On Cyclone Yasa: Climate Change Is Here And Now; Extensive Destruction Reported As Cyclone Yasa Slams Into Fiji; NZSA Lilian Ida Smith Award 2020 – Recipient Announced As Safia Archer Welcome to the 2020-21 South Pacific cyclone season forum page! 2 – 3 TCs. 1 – 2 TCs. The 2020–21 South Pacific cyclone season is a currently ongoing period of the year when most tropical cyclones form within the South Pacific Ocean to the east of 160°E. There is a 29% chance the season will be near normal (10-12 TCs) and only a 13% chance that the number of named Southwest Pacific TCs will be above average (13 TCs or more). Near normal activity is forecast to extend from the Solomon Islands to Niue (including Fiji and Tonga) with pockets of below normal activity farther to the east (Samoa, American Samoa, Cook Islands). Chance (%) above average TC counts December-April 2020/21. Expected TC count including probable range (95% confidence intervals) for the December 2020 – April 2021 Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season. 2020/21 Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook Issued: 18th November 2020 (in-season outlook) Expected TC counts December-April 2020/21. Suva, 16 December 2020 – Two tropical cyclones have formed in the Pacific, signaling the beginning of what is forecast to be a busy season for emergency responders across the region. This output is the combined view of several climate models, each using very different methodologies. The season lasts from November 1 to April 30, and comprises about 10 tropical cyclones in that period - … In summary: over the 2020/21 Summer and autumn cyclone season: North-western Australia is being warned of an early start to the cyclone season, ... James Ashley said the Pacific Ocean's La Nina weather system would ... in Dampier in February 2020. The NIWA and MetService assessment of named tropical cyclone (TC) activity indicates 8 to 10 named TCs could occur in the Southwest Pacific basin between November 2020 and April 2021. 3 – 4 TCs. Let’s hope that’s a sign of things to come. Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to … The National Hurricane Center's Tropical Cyclone Reports contain comprehensive information on each tropical cyclone, including synoptic history, meteorological statistics, casualties and damages, and the post-analysis best track (six … Tonga and Fiji set ... Tonga and Fiji are in store for some rough weather this week with the first cyclone of the season gathering strength and a second set to emerge later tonight. The first tropical cyclone of the season in the southwest Pacific has formed - and forecasters warn it could cause a "serious major hit" to New Zealand. The official start to the 2020 Cyclone Season is November 1 st – and going on recent model runs there’s already a small tropical depression forecast to form over Southwest Pacific. 2020-21 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season (Betting pools) 2020-21 Australian Region cyclone season (Betting pools) Future start. 0405 UTC Mon Dec 21 2020 There are no tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific at this time. An average to slightly-above-average number of tropical cyclones are expected for the 2020–21 Australian tropical cyclone season (November–April). The Eastern North Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th through November 30th. NIWA and MetService analyses indicate 9 to 12 named tropical cyclones (TC) could occur in the Southwest Pacific basin between November 2019 and April 2020. Table 1: 2020 pre-season activity forecast. The South Pacific Ocean recently moved into tropical cyclone season. Multiple storms gather in Pacific, Cyclone Yasa is in centre Photo: Fiji Met Service. Hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific Basin officially starts Friday, May 15, and although it is usually overshadowed by the Atlantic hurricane season, it can impact parts of the United States. Two separate cyclones developing in the Pacific are threatening to impact several countries later this week, with Fiji in particular being warned to be alert. 2020 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON AND CENTRAL PACIFIC CYCLONES By Raveendran Narayanan USA Raveendran Narayanan is not a Meteorologist, but since 2010 I was predicting Atlantic Hurricane Seasons and w… 2020 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season. Posted Thu Thursday 23 Jul July 2020 at 5:32am Thu Thursday 23 Jul July 2020 at 5:32am. The 2020-2021 Pacific Cyclone season has started, and officially runs from November 1, 2020 to the end of the cyclone season in April 2021. Personally, due to the possibility of La Niña conditions, I will not be surprised if this season's overall activity is below average. TCO-SP: November 2020 outlook for the December 2020 – April 2021 Southwest Pacific TC Season Page 3 of 7 Figure 2. The North Indian Ocean cyclone season has no official bounds, but cyclones tend to form between April and November, with peaks in late April to May and October to November. The season officially started on November 1, 2020 to April 30, 2021, however a tropical cyclone could form at any time between July 1, 2020 and June 30, 2021 and would count towards the season total. The Pacific Islands may be facing an increased threat of a Tropical Cyclone this coming cyclone season as NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center confirm that a La Niña climate pattern has developed in the Pacific and is likely to persist through the winter. Cyclone … Australia: The September Long-Range Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Australia (TCO-AU) suggests normal to above normal TC activity for the coming 2020/21 Australian TC season. The 2020 North Indian Ocean cyclone season is an ongoing event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. (Image credit: NASA Worldview) Fiji is bracing for the potentially catastrophic impact of category 5 Tropical Cyclone Yasa, which is expected to make landfall Thursday morning (U.S. EST) as a high-end category 4 storm. The 2020 Pacific typhoon season is an ongoing event of which when typhoons form in the Pacific Ocean. On average, there are 9 to 11 tropical cyclones each season in the Australian region, four of which typically cross the coast. The South Pacific tropical cyclone season officially began on Nov. 1, 2020 and will run through April 30, 2021. 0 – 1 TCs. The 2020–21 South Pacific cyclone season is a currently ongoing period of the year when most tropical cyclones form within the South Pacific Ocean to the east of 160°E. The first tropical cyclone of the season is brewing across the South Pacific and it can bring impacts to Fiji and Vanuatu. Below-normal. The average numbers of tropical cyclones during the season in the western … Our new tool, the Long-Range Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Southwest Pacific , will assist forecasters and help local authorities to prepare for the coming season’s cyclone activity. This expectation for tropical cyclone activity is close to normal for the region, but with elevated activity east of the International Date Line especially during the late season between February and April. The season lasts all year, although most tropical cyclones form between May and October. This seasonal outlook is for normal to below normal activity in terms of overall named cyclone systems in the region. 14 Dec 2020. Near-normal. The crews of hundreds of ocean-going yachts fear being stranded in the Pacific islands during cyclone season with usual safe havens in New Zealand and Australia closed because of … However, all models are largely in agreement that the overall tropical cyclone activity is expected to be below the long term average. If Cyclone Alerts are issued for South Pacific countries, RNZ Pacific will broadcast hourly updates of these bulletins if necessary, and whenever the situation changes. The official start to the 2020 Cyclone Season is November 1 st – and going on recent model runs there’s already a small tropical depression forecast to form over Southwest Pacific. The season's first tropical cyclone formed on May 10, making it the sixth-latest start in the basin on record. Near-average cyclone numbers are also likely for the eastern South Pacific but model accuracy is very low. The first tropical cyclone of the season is brewing across the South Pacific and it can bring impacts to Fiji and Vanuatu. The South Pacific tropical cyclone season is typically from 1 November to 30 April. The first and second tropical cyclones of the season in the South Pacific formed within 24 hours of one another earlier this week; now Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasa is headed for Fiji. Cyclone Harold batters Fiji on path of destruction through Pacific Read more But Yasa, about 550km (340 miles) north-west of Fiji’s main island Viti Levu, has already been upgraded to a … Cyclones Yasa and Zazu were both named by authorities on Monday, the first in the South Pacific for this summer's cyclone season. Category two Cyclone Sarai was one of the storms that battered the Pacific last season. NOAA-20 visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Yasa at category 5 intensity with 160 mph winds at approximately 12Z December 16, 2020. 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